Tuesday, August 16, 2005

Excuse to get a hybrid based on historical gas prices

DOE's historical data on gas prices

If you are like me and you want to be able to predict statistically how gas prices will rise based on the history of prices in your area, then this is about as thourough as you can get.

This is my excuse to buy a hybrid car: if the average price over the next 48 months will be somewhere around $4.00 (based on anything above 6.7 cent increases on average every month) then my Kia Sedona Minivan getting 14 MPG will cost me about $200-$300 extra to run each month. In other words, the savings I'd see even at a realistic 45 MPG in a prius would pay about $200-$300 of the payments on the new prius. And, that doesn't even take into account the $2000 approx. tax incentive from the government, nor rising maintenance for the now 3 year old minivan... You see where I am going?

Besides, I'd much rather spend $50 a month in gash than $300. At 14 MPG from my minivan now, that works out to $0.17 cents a mile at $2.40 per gallon, so if I average 1000 miles a month then that is $170 right? Then 45 MPG? $0.053 cents a mile is $53 a month, right? Well, that ain't bad and that is based on current prices here in Houston. Average 6.7 cents a month increase and the average price over 48 months would be about $3.93, and at that 14 MPG is $281.04 a month and 45 MPG is $87.43 which is approximately $200 savings, right?

Just hyper analytical food for thought. :D

Correct me if I am wrong.

digg story

1 comment:

Eric Standlee said...

We did it.

Good credit, a nice trade in, and the result:
$310.52 a month on a 48 month lease and our black prius with tan cloth interior (a must in devil hot Houston) is parked where our 2002 minivan used to sit.

If Toyota comes out with a minivan hybrid in 4 years we might switch to that at the end of the lease...

It is already averaging 35 mpg and we haven't gone 20 miles. :D